Clearly, evidence plays only part of a role in the decision-making process, as it is clear that decisionmaking is informed by many other sources. Research is really “one voice in a noisy room” that must compete directly with easily accessible and influential sources such as newspapers and television.1
Although the specific political structures and associated incentives will shape what is influential, a diverse range of sources other than research evidence commonly believed to influence decision-making include the following:
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Experience and personal views: The appraisal of a decisionmaker and his/her close circle of advisors on the basis of their personal views or professional experience will be one of the most influential sources in any decision-making process.
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A “resources-over-everything” perspective: The amount of funding available and the capacity of organizations/agencies to deliver will also tend to have a strong bearing on a decision. Maximizing cost-effectiveness or cost-efficiency is the goal in this case to the exclusion of all other analysis.
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Prevailing political climate: Governments in power will normally have a clear value-based agenda, for example, neo-liberalism, social democracy, socialism. Policy proposals that clearly fit into advancing the administration’s values will normally have a much better chance of being adopted.
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Habit and tradition: Government institutions (parliament, judiciary, ministries) tend to have established practices of doing things in relatively fixed ways. Institutional memory of “how we have always done things around here” will also be influential in any discussions of a policy change.
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Pressure groups, lobbyists, and opinion leaders: Strong lobbying by influential individuals or groups can be very influential in terms of how the problem and solutions are discussed and finally, in the actual bargaining for the final decision.
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Public opinion surveys and focus groups: Gauging the reactions of the broader public or a specific demographic to policy option choices and even the language and framing of policy issues through surveys or focus groups is common and influential in the final decision for focused politicians.
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What works: The urgency of making a decision within a particular parliamentary timetable or budget period using the information available within the allocated budget and institutional framework and which is a suitable compromise for all the players will undoubtedly have a strong influence on the direction chosen.2
Even from this relatively short list, it is clear that significant competition exists for the ideas developed through the research or analysis process, and many of the sources commonly seek to challenge the seemingly rational solutions proposed on the basis of the evidence. Further, research evidence is often not prioritized by decisionmakers because it often tends to “confuse as much as clarify” by questioning the fundamentals.3 Commentators have recently started to use the term “evidence-influenced” or “evidence-informed” rather than evidence-based decisionmaking, as the latter seems to overplay the role of evidence in such decision-making processes.4
Research evidence competes with many other potential sources of influence.